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Property Crime Trends in Christopher, Illinois: A Volatile Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Christopher, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2016 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with 18 incidents in 2016, peaking at 26 in 2019, and incomplete data for 2020. This represents a 44.4% increase from 2016 to 2019. During this period, the population decreased from 2,456 in 2016 to 2,330 in 2020, a 5.1% decline.
Burglary trends in the city showed significant volatility. In 2016, there were 5 burglaries, which doubled to 10 in 2017, then drastically decreased to 2 in 2018, before rising again to 9 in 2019 and dropping to 5 in 2020. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 2.04 in 2016 to 4.13 in 2017, 0.82 in 2018, 3.69 in 2019, and 2.15 in 2020. The city's contribution to state burglaries varied from 0.01% in 2016 and 2018 to a peak of 0.04% in 2019, indicating a disproportionate increase relative to state trends in that year.
Larceny-theft incidents showed less variation but an overall increasing trend. From 13 cases in 2016, it rose to 15 in 2017, 16 in 2018, and 17 in 2019, with no data available for 2020. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.29 in 2016 to 6.97 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained constant at 0.01% from 2016 to 2019, suggesting that the local increase was consistent with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was notably low, with zero incidents reported in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. Only in 2018 was there a single case recorded, resulting in a rate of 0.41 per 1,000 people and 0.01% of state motor vehicle thefts for that year. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the city.
Arson cases were rare, with only one incident reported in 2017 and another in 2020. These isolated events resulted in rates of 0.41 and 0.43 per 1,000 people, respectively. Notably, each of these single incidents accounted for 0.08% of state arson cases in their respective years, indicating a disproportionate impact on state statistics despite the low absolute numbers.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,514 per square mile in 2016 to 1,436 in 2020, there was a general increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts. This suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. This projection is based on the observed fluctuations and the recent downward trend in population. Burglary rates are expected to remain volatile but potentially average around 3-4 incidents per year. Larceny-theft may continue its gradual upward trend, possibly reaching 18-20 cases annually by 2029. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain rare, with possibly 0-1 incidents per year. Arson is expected to continue as an infrequent occurrence, with 0-1 cases every few years.
In summary, Christopher's property crime landscape is characterized by fluctuating burglary rates, a steady increase in larceny-theft, and very low incidences of motor vehicle theft and arson. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains small but can be disproportionate for certain crimes in specific years. These trends, coupled with the declining population, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly focusing on burglary and larceny-theft, to enhance public safety and maintain the city's overall quality of life.
