Motor vehicle theft, conversely, showed an increase from 1 case in 2021 to 5 cases in 2022, a 400% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.34 to 1.41, a 314.71% surge. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics rose from 0% to 0.01%, indicating a slight increase in its impact on statewide figures.

Arson cases remained at zero for both years, maintaining a 0% contribution to state arson statistics. This consistency suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city.

Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 677 people per square mile in 2021 to 820 in 2022, total property crimes decreased. This suggests that the growing population may have contributed to increased community vigilance or improved law enforcement coverage.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decline in property crimes, with the exception of motor vehicle theft. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize or slightly decrease, while larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend. Motor vehicle theft, however, may see a moderate increase if current trends persist.

In summary, China Grove has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction, particularly in larceny-theft, despite significant population growth. The increase in motor vehicle theft warrants attention, but overall, the city appears to be managing property crime effectively in the face of rapid expansion. These trends suggest a community that is adapting well to growth while maintaining a focus on public safety.