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Property Crime Trends in Chillicothe, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Chillicothe, Ohio, a city with a rich history dating back to its days as the first capital of Ohio, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 54.3%, from 2,199 to 1,004 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred while the city's population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.08% from 26,493 in 2010 to 26,473 in 2021.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 435 burglaries reported, which decreased to 84 in 2021, representing an 80.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 16.4 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.2 per 1,000 in 2021. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over this period, starting at 0.57% in 2010, peaking at 0.87% in 2015, and then declining to 0.39% by 2021. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased citywide, the reduction outpaced the state average, indicating improved local safety relative to the rest of Ohio.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant downward trend. Incidents decreased from 1,722 in 2010 to 877 in 2021, a 49.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 65.0 in 2010 to 33.1 in 2021. However, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.92% and 1.38% over the period, settling at 0.96% in 2021. This suggests that while larceny-theft decreased in absolute terms, the city's performance relative to the state remained consistent.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex pattern. The number of incidents initially decreased from 42 in 2010 to 25 in 2014, but then increased to 43 in 2021, representing a slight overall increase of 2.4%. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, starting at 1.6 in 2010, dropping to 0.9 in 2014, and rising back to 1.6 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.18% and 0.39% during this period, ending at 0.27% in 2021. This trend suggests that while the city initially made progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, recent years have seen a reversal of this trend.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall decrease. From 8 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 6 in 2021, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.3 in 2010 to 0.2 in 2021. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.77% in 2021, indicating that while arson decreased in the city, it did not decrease as rapidly as in other parts of the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $35,738 in 2013 to $50,034 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates, albeit at a slower pace than observed in the past decade. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trend, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase. Arson cases are projected to remain relatively low but may fluctuate year to year due to their small numbers.
In conclusion, Chillicothe has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. While challenges remain, especially with recent upticks in motor vehicle theft, the overall trend is positive. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while experiencing economic growth bodes well for its future. As Chillicothe continues to evolve, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies and economic development will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
