Motor vehicle theft in the city showed less consistent patterns. The number of thefts fluctuated, with 22 cases in 2010, peaking at 27 in 2014, and then decreasing to 12 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents similarly varied, from 3.6 in 2010 to 1.9 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0.15% to 0.38% over the years. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend shows a reduction in motor vehicle thefts, potentially reflecting improved vehicle security systems or targeted prevention efforts.

Arson data for the city is limited, with only three years reporting incidents: 2 cases in 2011, 0 in 2021, and 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents for years with reported cases was 0.33 in 2011 and 0.31 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases was 0.36% in 2011 and 0.38% in 2022. Given the scarcity of data, it's challenging to establish a clear trend for arson incidents in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,453 per square mile in 2010 to 1,523 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be an inverse relationship between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 61% in 2013 to 47% in 2022, property crimes also showed a general decline, contrary to what might be expected.

Racial demographics show a potential correlation with property crime trends. As the percentage of Black residents increased from 40% in 2013 to 51% in 2022, and the percentage of White residents decreased from 57% to 43% during the same period, property crimes generally declined. This suggests that changing racial demographics did not negatively impact crime rates in the city.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see approximately 90-100 total property crimes annually, with burglaries potentially dropping to around 10-15 cases, larceny-theft to 65-75 cases, and motor vehicle theft remaining stable at 10-12 cases per year.

In summary, Chickasaw has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. This positive trend, particularly evident in burglary and larceny-theft reductions, suggests effective crime prevention strategies and community engagement. The city's changing demographics, including increased population density and shifts in racial composition, have not negatively impacted crime rates. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining these downward crime trends will be crucial for the city's safety and quality of life.