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Property Crime Trends in Chester, PA: A Decade of Change in an Industrial Hub
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Chester, Pennsylvania, a small urban area with a rich industrial history, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased by 18.6%, from 1,252 to 1,019 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of a slight population decrease of 1.4%, from 34,459 in 2010 to 33,976 in 2019.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 466 burglaries reported, which decreased to 254 by 2019, representing a 45.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.5 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 7.5 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 1.82% in 2010 to 10.61% in 2019. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a slower rate than the state overall.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a slight decrease over the decade. In 2010, 638 larceny-thefts were reported, compared to 597 in 2019, a 6.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased marginally from 18.5 in 2010 to 17.6 in 2019. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased significantly from 0.82% to 6.37% over the same period, indicating that the city's improvement in this category lagged behind the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more volatile. The number of incidents fluctuated, starting at 148 in 2010, dropping to 100 in 2016, then rising to 168 in 2019. This represents a 13.5% increase over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 4.3 in 2010 to 4.9 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose dramatically from 1.38% to 17.06%, suggesting a concerning trend relative to state averages.
Arson cases in the city showed a significant decline, from 33 incidents in 2010 to 17 in 2019, a 48.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.96 to 0.50 over this period. Despite this improvement, the city's proportion of state arsons increased from 5.45% to 15.32%, indicating that the city's progress in reducing arson was slower than the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $32,947 in 2013 to $39,623 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 1,181 to 1,019. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. However, the rate of decrease is expected to slow. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially increasing slightly if current trends persist. Burglary and larceny-theft are projected to continue their gradual decline, while arson cases are expected to stabilize at their current lower levels.
In summary, Chester has made significant progress in reducing most categories of property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and arson. However, the city's share of state crime in these categories has increased, indicating that improvements have not kept pace with state-wide reductions. The correlation between rising median income and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further support crime reduction efforts. As the city moves forward, addressing the persistent challenge of motor vehicle thefts and maintaining the downward trend in other property crimes will be crucial for enhancing public safety and quality of life in Chester.
