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Property Crime Trends in Chesnee, South Carolina: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Chesnee, located in South Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its property crime rates and population. The total number of property crimes decreased from 63 in 2010 to 37 in 2022, representing a 41.27% reduction. During the same period, the population increased from 4,627 in 2010 to 4,686 in 2022, a modest growth of 1.27%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 15 burglaries, which dropped to 6 in 2022, marking a 60% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.24 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.04% and 0.17% over the period, with the 2022 figure at 0.09%. This downward trend in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the city.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over time, from 44 cases in 2010 to 25 in 2022, a 43.18% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 9.51 in 2010 to 5.33 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively low, ranging from 0.04% to 0.11%, with 2022 at 0.06%. This decline in larceny-theft could indicate enhanced community awareness and improved security measures in public and commercial areas.
Motor vehicle theft showed a contrasting trend, increasing from 4 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2022, a 50% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.86 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, suggesting a localized issue that may require targeted intervention.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported arsons in most years, with occasional incidents in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018. The highest percentage of state arsons was 0.93% in 2018. The infrequent nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or correlation with population changes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and overall property crime rates. As the median income increased from $34,907 in 2013 to $47,880 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 63% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between home ownership and reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll refer to as five years from now), we can anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, burglaries and larceny-theft are likely to continue decreasing, potentially reaching even lower levels. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, possibly increasing slightly or stabilizing at current levels.
In summary, Chesnee has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, with significant decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The increase in motor vehicle thefts, while concerning, is offset by improvements in other areas. The correlation between rising median incomes, increased home ownership, and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth and community stability could further enhance public safety in the coming years.
