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Property Crime Trends in Cherryville: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cherryville, a city in North Carolina, has witnessed significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 42.6%, from 197 to 113 incidents, while the population increased by 5.8%, from 9,796 to 10,367 residents.
Burglary trends in Cherryville have shown considerable variability. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which peaked at 61 in 2016, before declining to 32 in 2022, representing a 14.3% increase over the entire period. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.86 in 2010 to 3.09 in 2022. Cherryville's share of state burglaries rose from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating a growing proportion of burglaries occurring in the area relative to the state.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Cherryville, demonstrated a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 160 in 2010 to 70 in 2022, a substantial 56.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 16.33 to 6.75 over this period. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting a general decline in larceny-theft across the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed an overall increase, rising from 9 incidents in 2010 to 11 in 2022, a 22.2% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 0.92 to 1.06. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low but did see an increase from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating a slightly growing proportion of these crimes occurring in the area.
Arson data for Cherryville is limited, with only sporadic incidents reported. In 2014 and 2015, two cases were reported each year, representing 0.22% and 0.30% of state arsons respectively. The lack of consistent data makes it difficult to establish a clear trend for this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The overall decrease in property crimes coincided with a slight increase in median income, which rose from $44,980 in 2013 to $48,531 in 2022. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 69% and 77% during the period, which may have contributed to the overall decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data, we can project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to around 90-100 incidents annually. Burglaries may stabilize around 25-30 cases per year, while larceny-theft could further decline to approximately 50-60 incidents. Motor vehicle thefts might see a slight increase, potentially reaching 15-18 cases annually.
In summary, Cherryville has experienced a significant reduction in overall property crime rates, particularly in larceny-theft, despite a modest population increase. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, suggests improving socioeconomic conditions in the city. However, the slight increases in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts warrant continued attention from local law enforcement. The city's evolving crime landscape, set against the backdrop of demographic changes, underscores the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates in urban environments.
