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Property Crime Trends in Charlack, Missouri: A Small City's Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Charlack, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 1,715 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2016, the total number of property crimes varied, starting at 47 in 2010, peaking at 66 in 2011, and ending at 46 in 2016, representing a slight overall decrease of 2.13%. During this same period, the population grew from 1,265 to 1,364, an increase of 7.83%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variation. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries, which increased to 16 in 2011, representing a 77.78% rise. By 2016, the number had decreased to 14, still showing a 55.56% increase from 2010. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 7.11 in 2010 to 10.26 in 2016. The city's share of state burglaries also rose from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2016, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends. This suggests that while the city's population grew, it experienced a higher concentration of burglaries relative to its size.
Larceny-theft incidents fluctuated over the years, starting at 35 in 2010, reaching a high of 47 in 2011, and then decreasing to 28 in 2016, representing a 20% overall decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 27.67 in 2010 to 20.53 in 2016. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, moving from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2016. This indicates that while the raw number of thefts decreased, the city maintained its proportional share of state larceny-theft incidents.
Motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase over the period, from 3 incidents in 2010 to 4 in 2016, a 33.33% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 2.37 in 2010 to 2.93 in 2016. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% to 0.03%, suggesting a slight increase in the city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics.
Arson data was only available for 2014 and 2015, with one incident reported each year. This translates to a rate of 0.81 per 1,000 residents in 2014 and 0.73 in 2015. The city's share of state arson cases was 0.12% in both years, indicating a consistent but small contribution to state arson statistics.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 4,672 per square mile in 2010 to 5,038 in 2016, property crimes initially spiked but then stabilized, suggesting that higher density may have initially led to more opportunities for crime but eventually reached a plateau.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential slight decrease in overall property crime rates. This projection is based on the historical trend of decreasing larceny-theft incidents, which comprise the majority of property crimes in the city. However, this decrease may be offset by the slight upward trend in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts.
In summary, Charlack has experienced complex property crime dynamics over the years. While larceny-theft has shown a decreasing trend, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts have slightly increased. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime statistics has generally increased, particularly in burglaries. These trends, coupled with population growth and increasing density, suggest that the city may need to focus on targeted crime prevention strategies, especially for burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
