Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 3 in 2013 and 2014, before returning to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively low, decreasing slightly from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.20 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, reaching a high of 0.04% in 2013 but dropping to 0.01% by 2022. This indicates that motor vehicle theft has remained a relatively minor issue in the city.

Arson incidents have been rare in Chapel Hill. Only one case was reported in 2016, accounting for 0.15% of state arsons that year. In all other years, no arson incidents were reported. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,122 per square mile in 2010 to 1,358 in 2022, property crimes did not show a consistent increase, suggesting that population density alone is not a strong predictor of crime rates in this city. However, there appears to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as the median income rose from $60,796 in 2013 to $68,008 in 2022, the overall property crime rate tended to decrease, although with some fluctuations.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend. Based on the historical data and current trajectories, it's estimated that total property crimes could stabilize around 10-15 incidents per year, with larceny theft remaining the most common type of property crime.

In summary, Chapel Hill has shown a generally positive trend in property crime rates over the past decade, with decreases in most categories despite population growth. The city's efforts in reducing burglaries have been particularly successful, while larceny theft remains the primary area of concern. These trends, coupled with the rising median income and stable community characteristics, suggest that Chapel Hill is maintaining a relatively safe environment for its residents. However, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in the coming years.