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Property Crime Trends in Champaign, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Champaign, Illinois, a vibrant university town home to the University of Illinois, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the city saw a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 2,281 to 1,547, representing a 32.2% reduction. This decline occurred against the backdrop of population growth, with the city's residents increasing from 81,296 in 2011 to 89,245 in 2022, a 9.8% rise.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked downward trend. In 2011, there were 586 burglaries, which decreased to 174 by 2022, a substantial 70.3% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.2 in 2011 to 1.9 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 1.06% in 2011, peaking at 2.07% in 2016, and settling at 1.04% in 2022. This decline suggests improved home security measures and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglary.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Champaign, showed a less dramatic but still significant decrease. Cases dropped from 1,599 in 2011 to 1,339 in 2022, a 16.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 19.7 to 15.0 over the same period. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases increased slightly from 0.93% to 1.31%, indicating that while improvements were made locally, they outpaced state-level reductions.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately decreased from 96 cases in 2011 to 34 in 2022, a 64.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.2 to 0.4. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts dropped significantly from 0.39% to 0.12%, suggesting particularly effective local strategies in combating this crime type.
Arson cases in Champaign showed variability but remained relatively low throughout the period. From 12 cases in 2011, it peaked at 23 in 2014 before settling at 13 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently below 0.3. The city's proportion of state arson cases fluctuated, ranging from 0.22% to 1.97%, ending at 1.97% in 2022. This suggests that while arson remains a concern, it affects a small portion of the population.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $38,683 in 2013 to $56,148 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, potentially reaching historic lows. Larceny-theft, while decreasing, may plateau due to its higher baseline. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but could fluctuate year to year due to their already small numbers.
In summary, Champaign has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a city becoming safer and more prosperous. However, continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.
