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Property Crime Trends in Centre, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Centre, Alabama, a small urban area with a population of 6,333 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. The total number of property crimes decreased from 271 in 2012 to 186 in 2022, marking a 31.4% reduction. During this same period, the population increased by 2.6%, from 6,174 in 2012 to 6,333 in 2022, indicating a divergence between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2012, there were 51 burglaries reported, which decreased to 20 in 2022, representing a 60.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.26 per 1,000 residents in 2012 to 3.16 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.16% in 2012 to 0.18% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. In 2012, there were 208 larceny thefts reported, which decreased to 153 in 2022, a 26.4% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 33.69 in 2012 to 24.16 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.24% in 2012 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft in the city decreased at a slower rate than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2012, there were 12 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 13 in 2022, an 8.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.94 in 2012 to 2.05 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.17% in 2012 to 0.19% in 2022, suggesting that motor vehicle theft in the city increased at a faster rate than the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported case in 2022, representing 0.19% of state arsons. Due to the lack of historical data, it's challenging to establish meaningful trends for this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 527 per square mile in 2012 to 541 in 2022, while property crimes decreased. This suggests that increased density did not lead to higher crime rates. Median income showed a negative correlation with property crime rates, as income rose from $41,978 in 2013 to $49,550 in 2018, coinciding with a decrease in property crimes from 254 to 191 during the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crimes. Based on the recent uptick from 118 property crimes in 2021 to 186 in 2022, and considering the long-term downward trend, we might expect property crimes to fluctuate between 150 and 200 annually by 2029.
In summary, Centre has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. Burglary and larceny theft have shown significant declines, while motor vehicle theft has slightly increased. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in crime reduction. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies could be crucial in sustaining these positive trends in Centre.
