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Property Crime Trends in Centralia, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Centralia, located in Missouri, has experienced notable changes in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 37.11%, from 97 to 61 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 12.89%, from 5,684 to 6,417 residents, indicating a divergence between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries reported, which decreased to 5 in 2022, representing a 70.59% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.99 to 0.78 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, starting at 0.05% in 2010, peaking at 0.09% in 2016, and settling at 0.04% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated a declining trend. The number of incidents dropped from 75 in 2010 to 52 in 2022, a 30.67% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 13.19 to 8.10. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, starting at 0.07% in 2010 and ending at the same percentage in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. This indicates that while larceny-theft has decreased locally, it has done so at a rate similar to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed some variability but ultimately decreased. From 5 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 4 in 2022, a 20% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.88 to 0.62. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging from 0.02% to 0.05% over the years, ending at 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue in the city compared to other areas in the state.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with only two reported incidents over the 12-year period - one in 2012 and another in 2016. This infrequency makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or rates. The city's contribution to state arson cases was negligible, with the highest percentage being 0.12% in 2016.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $48,849 in 2013 to $61,106 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 94 to 61. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the racial composition changes and property crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 99% in 2019 to 87% in 2022, coinciding with increases in Hispanic and multiracial populations, property crime rates continued to decline. This indicates that the city's increasing diversity has not negatively impacted property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime in Centralia could potentially decrease further to around 50 incidents per year. This forecast assumes continued economic growth and demographic shifts similar to recent years.
In summary, Centralia has experienced a significant reduction in property crime over the past decade, despite population growth. The most notable decreases were in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson remained relatively low. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing diversity, suggest a city that is becoming safer and more prosperous. As Centralia continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the community's long-term safety and well-being.
