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Property Crime Trends in Centralia, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Centralia, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 805 in 2010 to 570 in 2019 (2020 data incomplete), representing a 29.2% decrease. Concurrently, the population declined from 18,986 in 2010 to 17,745 in 2020, a 6.5% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 212 burglaries, which decreased to 144 by 2019, a 32.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 11.2 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 8.0 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, while burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.58% in 2019, suggesting a more significant decline in burglaries statewide. This trend indicates improved local security measures or changing criminal behavior patterns specific to the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. In 2010, there were 569 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 388 in 2019, a 31.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 30.0 in 2010 to 21.4 in 2019. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft crimes decreased slightly from 0.34% to 0.28% over this period, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 24 in 2010 to 38 in 2019, a 58.3% increase, the rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.3 to 2.1. More significantly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.1% to 0.25%, suggesting a localized issue that diverges from state trends. This could indicate a need for targeted interventions in vehicle security within the city.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. From 1 case in 2010 to 8 cases in 2019, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.05 to 0.44. The city's share of state arsons rose substantially from 0.1% to 0.78%, indicating a significant local problem that requires attention from law enforcement and community leaders.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $39,169 in 2013 to $49,258 in 2020, total property crimes decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, we forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Centralia may see a further 15-20% reduction in overall property crimes if current economic and demographic trends continue. However, targeted interventions may be necessary to address the rising trends in motor vehicle theft and arson.
In conclusion, Centralia has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increasing trends in motor vehicle theft and arson, along with the city's growing share of these crimes at the state level, highlight areas requiring focused attention. The correlation between rising incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a crucial role in further crime reduction efforts.
