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Property Crime Trends in Centertown, Kentucky: A Decade of Stability in a Small Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Centertown, Kentucky, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, this small community has experienced fluctuations in its property crime rates against a backdrop of varying population figures. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of property crimes ranged from 0 to 2 incidents per year, while the population decreased by 0.59% from 1,528 to 1,519 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have been sporadic. The data shows only one reported burglary in 2018, which represented 0.02% of the state's total burglaries that year. This translates to a rate of 0.73 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2018. In all other reported years, there were zero burglaries. The isolated nature of this incident suggests it may be an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend. The lack of consistent burglary reports could be seen as a positive indicator of community safety.
Larceny-theft has been the most consistently reported property crime in the city. From 2012 to 2016, there was one larceny-theft incident reported each year. This consistency, despite population fluctuations, suggests a stable, low-level occurrence of petty theft. The rate of larceny-theft per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.65 in 2012 to 0.66 in 2022, showing a marginal increase. Notably, in 2019 and 2021, no larceny-thefts were reported, indicating potential improvements in community vigilance or law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft emerged as a concern only recently, with one incident reported in 2022. This single occurrence represented 0.02% of the state's total motor vehicle thefts for that year. The rate of 0.66 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 residents in 2022 marks a new trend that warrants attention, especially given the city's previously unblemished record in this category.
Arson has not been a significant issue in the city, with no reported cases throughout the period from 2012 to 2022. This absence of arson incidents speaks positively about fire safety and property protection measures in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between property crime and median income. As median income rose from $41,954 in 2017 to $54,249 in 2022, property crimes remained low, with slight fluctuations. The percentage of owner-occupied homes, which has remained relatively stable around 85-87% since 2015, may contribute to the low crime rates, as homeownership is often associated with community stability.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued low level of property crimes, likely ranging between 1 to 3 incidents annually. This projection is based on the historical data showing infrequent occurrences and the stable socioeconomic indicators of the city.
In summary, Centertown demonstrates a remarkably low and stable property crime profile. The sporadic nature of burglaries, the consistency of low-level larceny-theft, and the recent emergence of a single motor vehicle theft incident paint a picture of a community with minimal property crime concerns. The absence of arson cases further underscores the overall safety of the area. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, suggest that Centertown is likely to maintain its low property crime levels in the foreseeable future, barring any significant socioeconomic changes.
