Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Cave City: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cave City, Kentucky, a small municipality known for its proximity to Mammoth Cave National Park, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 44 to 11, representing a 75% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 3,975 to 3,996, an increase of 0.53%.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a general downward trend, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which peaked at 19 in 2012, before declining to 5 in 2022. This represents a 50% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.52 in 2010 to 1.25 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a more dramatic decline. In 2010, there were 26 reported cases, which dropped to just 1 in 2022, a 96.15% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.54 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft crimes dropped from 0.04% to 0.00%, suggesting a significant improvement relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in Cave City has remained relatively stable, with 8 incidents in 2010 and 5 in 2022. However, when considering the population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 2.01 to 1.25. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.18% to 0.12%, indicating a slight improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases in Cave City have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported arsons in most years, with single incidents reported in 2013, 2016, and 2021. Given the rarity of these events, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but the overall impact on property crime rates has been minimal.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $32,989 in 2013 to $35,119 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. However, this correlation is not perfect, as there were fluctuations in both crime rates and income levels during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 4-5 incidents per year, larceny-theft may see occasional spikes but should remain below 10 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts are projected to hover around 3-4 incidents per year.
In summary, Cave City has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft. While burglary and motor vehicle theft rates have also improved, they remain areas for continued focus. The city's property crime trends generally outpaced state improvements, suggesting effective local crime prevention strategies. As Cave City continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
