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Property Crime Trends in Castleberry, Alabama: A Small Town's Unique Challenge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Castleberry, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. In 2022, the city reported a total of 6 property crimes, with a population of 1,739. This small town has experienced significant population fluctuations over the years, which provides an intriguing backdrop for analyzing crime patterns.
Burglary trends in the city show a rate of 1.72 incidents per 1,000 residents in 2022, with 3 reported cases. This represents 0.03% of the state's total burglaries, indicating a relatively low contribution to Alabama's overall burglary statistics. Given the limited data available, it's challenging to discern a long-term trend, but the current rate suggests a manageable level of burglary incidents relative to the population size.
Larceny-theft in the city also recorded 3 incidents in 2022, mirroring the burglary rate at 1.72 per 1,000 residents. This crime type accounts for 0.01% of Alabama's larceny-theft cases, again highlighting the city's minimal impact on statewide property crime figures. The equal distribution between burglary and larceny-theft cases is noteworthy, suggesting a balanced property crime profile within the community.
Interestingly, the data shows no reported motor vehicle thefts or arsons in 2022. This absence of incidents translates to a 0% contribution to the state's statistics for these crime categories. The lack of motor vehicle thefts and arsons could be indicative of effective local crime prevention strategies or could simply reflect the small size and rural nature of the community.
When examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. The city's population density decreased from 1,430 per square mile in 2019 to 1,016 in 2022, coinciding with a period of relatively low reported property crimes. This suggests that lower population density might be associated with reduced property crime incidents.
Another significant correlation appears between median income and property crime rates. The median income in the city rose from $40,407 in 2019 to $45,838 in 2022, a 13.4% increase. This upward trend in income levels coincides with the low property crime figures reported in 2022, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited historical data available. However, if current conditions persist—such as stable or increasing median income and moderate population density—we might expect property crime rates to remain relatively low. The forecast suggests that annual property crime incidents could range between 5 to 8 cases per year, assuming no significant changes in local socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Castleberry demonstrates a relatively low property crime profile, with burglary and larceny-theft being the primary concerns. The absence of motor vehicle thefts and arsons is particularly noteworthy. The correlations between decreasing population density, increasing median income, and low crime rates provide valuable insights into the factors that may influence property crime in small, rural communities. As the city moves forward, maintaining economic growth and community-oriented policing strategies could be key to sustaining these favorable crime trends.
