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Property Crime Trends in Casey, Illinois: A Study of Fluctuating Rates and Home Ownership
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Casey, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2012 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 33 in 2012, decreasing to 21 in 2018, and then increasing to 38 in 2019. This represents a 15.15% increase over the seven-year period. During this same timeframe, the population decreased from 4,660 in 2012 to 4,601 in 2019, a 1.27% decline.
Burglary rates in the city showed a downward trend. In 2012, there were 8 burglaries, which decreased to 7 in 2018 and further to 6 in 2019. This represents a 25% decrease over the period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.72 in 2012 to 1.30 in 2019. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.03%. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they may have decreased at a similar rate statewide.
Larceny-theft trends showed more variability. In 2012, there were 22 incidents, which decreased to 13 in 2018 but then sharply increased to 32 in 2019. This represents a 45.45% increase from 2012 to 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 4.72 in 2012 to 6.95 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-thefts doubled from 0.01% in 2012 and 2018 to 0.02% in 2019, indicating a significant increase relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city decreased over time. There were 3 incidents in 2012, which decreased to 1 in 2018 and further to 0 in 2019. This represents a 100% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.64 in 2012 to 0 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.01% in 2012 and 2018 to 0% in 2019, indicating a positive trend compared to state levels.
Arson rates remained consistently at 0 throughout the observed period, with no reported incidents in 2012, 2018, or 2019. Consequently, the city's share of state arsons remained at 0%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and home ownership percentages. As the percent of owner-occupied homes increased from 77% in 2018 to 79% in 2019, total property crimes increased from 21 to 38. This suggests that other factors may be influencing crime rates more significantly than home ownership.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (until 2029, which would be five years from now), we might expect to see a continuation of the overall increasing trend in total property crimes, potentially reaching around 45-50 incidents annually. However, this prediction should be taken with caution due to the limited data points and potential unforeseen factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, Casey has experienced mixed trends in property crime from 2012 to 2019. While burglaries and motor vehicle thefts have decreased, larceny-thefts have increased significantly. The city's share of state crime has remained relatively stable for most categories, with a notable increase in larceny-thefts. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and economic factors, paint a complex picture of the local crime landscape that warrants ongoing monitoring and targeted prevention strategies.
