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Property Crime Trends in Caseville: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Caseville, located in Michigan, has experienced fluctuating property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 73.33%, from 30 to 8 incidents. During this same period, the population of Caseville decreased by 5.81%, from 2,411 to 2,271 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, representing an 80% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.07 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.01% throughout most of the period, with a slight increase to 0.02% in 2021 before returning to 0.01% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents has remained proportionally consistent.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a substantial decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 25 reported cases, which dropped to 7 in 2022, marking a 72% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.37 in 2010 to 3.08 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This suggests an improvement in the city's ability to prevent or address larceny-theft crimes relative to the rest of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been consistently low, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 1 incident in 2011, resulting in a rate of 0.41 per 1,000 residents that year. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft remained at 0% for most years, with a slight increase to 0.01% in 2011. This indicates that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the city and has had minimal impact on state-wide statistics.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2016. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.43 per 1,000 residents for that year and represented 0.08% of state arson cases. In all other years, there were no reported arson cases, demonstrating that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $39,236 in 2013 to $51,674 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic well-being and property crime incidence. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 85% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, coinciding with the decline in property crimes. This correlation might indicate that higher homeownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it is projected that the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 5-6 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction assumes that current socioeconomic trends and community factors remain relatively stable.
In summary, Caseville has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft incidents. The city has maintained a consistently low rate of motor vehicle theft and arson. The observed correlations between rising median income, increasing homeownership rates, and declining crime rates suggest that improving economic conditions and community stability may have contributed to the positive trends in property crime reduction. These findings indicate that Caseville has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and reducing property crime occurrences.
