Motor vehicle theft showed an upward trend, contrary to other property crimes. In 2010, there were 64 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 141 by 2022, a substantial 120.31% increase. Even when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.47 in 2010 to 0.79 in 2022, a 68.09% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also grew from 0.61% in 2010 to 0.97% in 2022, indicating that this crime category became a more significant issue for the city relative to the state.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. There were 2 cases in 2010, which increased to 6 in 2022. Despite this numerical increase, the rate per 1,000 residents only changed slightly from 0.015 in 2010 to 0.033 in 2022. The city's percentage of state arson cases increased from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.68% in 2022, suggesting that arson became a relatively larger concern for the city compared to the state over time.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and overall property crime rates. As median income rose from $89,405 in 2013 to $125,414 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between population density and motor vehicle thefts, with both increasing over time. The population density grew from 2,259 per square mile in 2010 to 2,990 in 2022, coinciding with the rise in motor vehicle thefts.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: Burglaries may continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 250 cases annually. Larceny theft is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease, hovering around 1,500 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could continue their upward trend, possibly reaching 180-200 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate between 5-10 cases per year.

In summary, Cary has experienced a general decrease in property crimes despite significant population growth. The most notable trends include a substantial reduction in burglaries, a slight decrease in larceny thefts, and a concerning increase in motor vehicle thefts. The city's economic growth, as evidenced by rising median incomes, appears to have a positive impact on overall crime reduction. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts, possibly linked to growing population density, presents a challenge for local law enforcement. These trends suggest that while Cary has made progress in crime reduction, targeted efforts may be necessary to address specific areas of concern, particularly motor vehicle theft, in the coming years.