Motor vehicle theft showed a different pattern, with an increase over the observed period. In 2010, there were 7 reported motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 19 by 2021, representing a 171.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.9 in 2010 to 2.6 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also grew from 0.05% to 0.11% during this period, suggesting that this type of crime became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to the state average.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated but showed an overall increase. From 3 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 8 in 2021, a 166.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.4 in 2010 to 1.1 in 2021. Notably, the city's proportion of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.29% to 1.17%, indicating that arson became a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of Missouri.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,506 per square mile in 2010 to 1,396 in 2021, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime incidents. Additionally, as the median income increased from $32,293 in 2013 to $44,386 in 2021, there was a general trend of decreasing property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, indicating a possible inverse relationship between income levels and certain types of property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: Burglary rates are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents per year by 2029. Larceny-theft may stabilize or show a slight decrease, with an estimated 100-110 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft could continue to increase, potentially reaching 25-30 incidents per year. Arson cases may fluctuate but could stabilize around 5-7 incidents annually.

In summary, Caruthersville has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increase in motor vehicle theft and arson rates presents new challenges for law enforcement. The correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could contribute to further reductions in certain types of property crime. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address the rising trends in motor vehicle theft and arson while maintaining the positive momentum in other areas will be crucial for enhancing overall public safety.