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Property Crime Trends in Carthage, NC: A Decade of Divergence Between Crime Rates and Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carthage, a town in North Carolina, has experienced significant shifts in property crime trends over the past decade, paralleling its population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 8.57%, from 70 to 64 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 15.97%, from 6,833 to 7,924 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to 12 in 2022, representing a 64.71% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 4.98 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.51 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.11% in 2020 before settling at 0.05% in 2022. This downward trend in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changes in local socioeconomic conditions.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, also saw a decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 35 incidents, which increased to a peak of 67 in 2013 before declining to 46 in 2022, marking a 31.34% overall reduction from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.12 in 2010 to 5.81 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.05% throughout the period. This trend indicates a general improvement in theft prevention or reporting practices.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed some fluctuation but an overall increase. From 1 incident in 2010, it rose to 6 in 2022, a 500% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people only increased from 0.15 to 0.76. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a faster increase compared to state trends. This rise could suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures or targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson cases in Carthage have been sporadic and relatively low. There were 3 cases in 2010, dropping to zero for several years, with occasional single incidents reported in 2020 and 2021. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.44 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.29% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. These low numbers make it difficult to establish a clear trend, but overall, arson does not appear to be a persistent problem in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $43,099 in 2013 to $59,541 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 107 to 64. Additionally, the rise in homeownership from 80% in 2013 to 86% in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between stable housing and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Carthage may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 8-10 incidents annually, while larceny theft might stabilize at approximately 40-45 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to fluctuate but are unlikely to exceed 10 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Carthage has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. This improvement, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggests an overall enhancement in the quality of life and security in the town. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued attention from local law enforcement and community members to maintain and further improve the town's safety profile.
