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Property Crime Trends in Carthage, Illinois: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carthage, Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, decreasing overall from 53 in 2010 to 20 in 2019 (data for 2020 is incomplete). This represents a substantial 62.3% decrease in property crimes. During this same period, the population declined from 3,386 in 2010 to 3,144.5 in 2020, a 7.1% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries, which peaked at 21 in 2012 before declining to 5 in 2019. This represents a 44.4% decrease from 2010 to 2019. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.66 in 2010 to 1.68 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.04% over the decade, indicating that burglary rates in the city generally aligned with or were slightly below state averages.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 44 larceny-theft cases, which decreased to 15 in 2019, representing a 65.9% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 13.0 in 2010 to 5.03 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.03% over the years, suggesting that the city maintained lower larceny-theft rates compared to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained consistently low throughout the decade. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2013, and 2019, with a maximum of 3 cases reported in 2015. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.91 (in 2015). The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.02%, indicating that this type of crime was less prevalent in the city compared to state averages.
Arson cases were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2020. This suggests that arson was not a significant concern in the city during this time frame.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,356 per square mile in 2010 to 1,259 in 2020, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential link between population density and property crime incidence. Additionally, the median income increased from $53,180 in 2013 to $64,018 in 2020, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on historical data, we can project that total property crimes may further decrease by approximately 15-20% by 2029. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors can influence crime rates.
In summary, Carthage has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and burglary cases. The city has maintained consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson. These trends, coupled with demographic changes such as decreasing population density and increasing median income, paint a picture of improving public safety in the area. As the city moves forward, maintaining and building upon these positive trends will be crucial for the continued well-being of its residents.
