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Property Crime Trends in Carterville, Missouri: Population Growth and Shifting Crime Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carterville, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 10 to 33, representing a 230% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 2,223 to 2,583, a 16.2% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have been volatile. In 2010, there was 1 burglary, which peaked at 13 in 2014, and then decreased to 3 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.45 in 2010 to a high of 5.32 in 2014, settling at 1.16 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, reaching a maximum of 0.05% in 2014 and ending at 0.02% in 2022. This volatility suggests periodic spikes in burglary activity rather than a consistent trend.
Larceny theft has shown a more consistent upward trend. From 7 incidents in 2010, it rose to 23 in 2022, a 228.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.15 to 8.90 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts grew from 0.01% to 0.03%, indicating a faster increase in larceny theft compared to the state average. This trend suggests a growing concern for petty theft in the community.
Motor vehicle theft demonstrated a significant increase, from 2 incidents in 2010 to 7 in 2022, a 250% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.90 to 2.71. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.03%, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average. This trend may point to an emerging issue with vehicle security in the area.
Arson cases have been sporadic, with no reported incidents in most years. However, there were notable spikes in 2014 (3 cases) and 2022 (1 case). The rate per 1,000 people in these years was 1.23 and 0.39, respectively. The city's contribution to state arson cases was particularly high in 2014 at 0.36% and 0.16% in 2022, suggesting that while rare, arson incidents have a significant impact when they occur.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in property crimes and population growth. As the population density increased from 852 per square mile in 2010 to 990 in 2022, property crimes also showed an upward trend. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between the decrease in owner-occupied housing (from 79% in 2013 to 70% in 2022) and the increase in property crimes, which might suggest a link between property ownership and crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crimes could increase by approximately 20-25% if current trends continue. This would result in an estimated 40-41 property crimes annually. However, this projection should be considered cautiously due to the historical volatility in crime rates.
In summary, Carterville has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. Larceny theft and motor vehicle theft have shown the most consistent upward trends, while burglary and arson have been more volatile. The correlation between decreasing home ownership and increasing crime rates suggests a potential area for community focus. As the city continues to grow, addressing these property crime trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
