Motor vehicle theft in the city saw an increase from no reported cases in 2014 to 5 incidents in 2016 and 2017, before dropping to 1 case in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.62 in 2017 and fell to 0.13 in 2018. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% in 2014 to 0.03% in 2016 and 2017, then decreased to 0.01% in 2018, indicating volatility in this crime category relative to state figures.

Arson cases were rare, with only one incident reported in 2015, representing 0.08% of state arsons that year. In all other years, no arson cases were reported, suggesting this is not a significant concern for the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 1,466 per square mile in 2014 to 1,490 in 2018, total property crimes decreased, suggesting that increased density may have contributed to better community vigilance or law enforcement presence.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime incidents if current trends persist. Burglary rates may stabilize around 2.2 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft could further decrease to approximately 4.5 incidents per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low but fluctuating, possibly averaging 2-3 cases per year.

In summary, Carterville has shown a general improvement in property crime rates despite population growth. The most significant changes were seen in the reduction of larceny-theft incidents and the volatility of motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with the city's relatively stable share of state crime figures, suggest effective local crime prevention strategies and community engagement. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.