Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Carson: Motor Vehicle Theft on the Rise
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carson, California, a diverse urban center in Los Angeles County, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 8.6%, rising from 2,326 to 2,525 incidents. This change occurred alongside a modest population growth of 0.61%, with the city's population increasing from 91,828 in 2010 to 92,391 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 441 burglary incidents, which decreased to 372 in 2022, representing a 15.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.80 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.03 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have declined more rapidly in other parts of California.
Larceny-theft incidents have remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 1,421 cases in 2010 to 1,311 in 2022, a 7.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.47 in 2010 to 14.19 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents decreased marginally from 0.28% to 0.26% over this period, indicating that the city's larceny-theft trends are largely in line with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 464 incidents, which increased to 842 in 2022, a substantial 81.5% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 5.05 in 2010 to 9.11 in 2022. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.36% to 0.55%, suggesting that this crime type has become a more significant issue in the city compared to the rest of California.
Arson cases fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase from 12 incidents in 2010 to 22 in 2020 (the last year with available data), representing an 83.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.13 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2020. The city's contribution to state arson cases also increased from 0.20% to 0.22% during this period, indicating a slightly higher prevalence of arson in the city compared to state trends.
A strong correlation is observed between motor vehicle theft rates and population density. As the population density increased from 4,902 per square mile in 2010 to 4,932 in 2022, motor vehicle thefts rose correspondingly. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $72,280 in 2013 to $98,862 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend, with the exception of motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: Burglary rates are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 300 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is expected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 1,300 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may continue to rise, potentially reaching over 1,000 incidents per year if current trends persist. Arson cases are projected to stabilize around 20-25 incidents annually.
In summary, Carson has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft have shown encouraging declines, the significant increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a growing challenge for law enforcement and community safety initiatives. The city's changing crime patterns, particularly in relation to state-wide trends, underscore the need for targeted strategies to address specific property crime issues, especially in the realm of vehicle security and theft prevention.
