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Property Crime Trends in Carrollton, Illinois: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carrollton, Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 37 in 2010 and ending at 32 in 2019, representing a 13.5% decrease. During this same period, the population decreased from 3,715 in 2010 to 3,452 in 2019, a 7.1% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries reported, which rose sharply to 16 in 2012, representing a 300% increase. However, by 2019, this number had decreased to 7, a 56.25% reduction from the 2012 peak. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.08 in 2010 to 4.53 in 2012, before falling to 2.03 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.04% in 2015 and 2017, indicating periods where the city contributed more significantly to the state's burglary statistics.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 32 reported cases, which decreased to 23 in 2019, a 28.13% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 8.61 in 2010 to 6.66 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable at around 0.02% throughout the period, suggesting that the local trend mirrored state-level patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained low but variable. There was 1 case reported in 2010, 2 cases in 2013, and 2 cases again in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.27 in 2010 to 0.58 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, consistently at or below 0.01%, indicating that this crime type is not a significant concern relative to state levels.
Arson cases were extremely rare in Carrollton. Only one case was reported in 2011, representing 0.11% of state arsons that year. In all other years, no arsons were reported, suggesting that this crime type is not a persistent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $47,766 in 2013 to $55,605 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 31 to 32 over the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to a slight reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Carrollton may experience a further slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 5-7 cases annually, while larceny-theft may continue its gradual decline to approximately 20 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, with 1-2 cases annually. Arson is predicted to remain a rare occurrence.
In summary, Carrollton has shown resilience in managing property crime over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been in reducing burglary rates from their peak, while maintaining low levels of motor vehicle theft and arson. The consistent decrease in larceny-theft cases is particularly noteworthy. These trends, coupled with the correlation to rising median incomes, suggest that the city's economic development may be playing a role in crime reduction. As Carrollton moves forward, maintaining focus on economic growth and community engagement could help sustain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
