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Property Crime Trends in Carpentersville: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carpentersville, located in Illinois, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased by 34.4%, from 579 to 380 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 1.6%, from 33,275 to 33,821 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 113 burglaries, which decreased to 25 in 2019, representing a 77.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.39 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.74 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2019. This substantial decline suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglary.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also exhibited a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 463 in 2010 to 343 in 2019, a 25.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.91 in 2010 to 10.14 in 2019. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.27% to 0.24% over this period. This suggests that while larceny-theft decreased in absolute terms, the reduction was roughly in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were only 3 reported incidents, which rose to 12 in 2019, a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.09 to 0.35. More significantly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.01% to 0.08%, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends. This could point to the city becoming a more attractive target for car thieves over time.
Arson cases in the city remained low but fluctuated. From 4 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.12 to 0.03. The city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.38% to 0.10%, suggesting a significant improvement relative to state trends.
A notable correlation exists between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $69,420 in 2013 to $78,502 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 557 to 380. This inverse relationship suggests that rising economic prosperity may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates in Carpentersville are likely to continue their overall downward trend. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, potentially by another 20-30%. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to rise, possibly by 15-25% if current trends persist. Arson cases are likely to remain low but may fluctuate between 1-3 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Carpentersville has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The inverse correlation with rising median incomes suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a specific challenge that may require targeted interventions. These trends, if sustained, position the city for a safer future, though ongoing vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to address emerging crime patterns.
