Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Carlyle, Illinois: A Decade of Change and Economic Correlation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carlyle, located in Illinois, has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 48.89%, from 90 to 46 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 2.92%, from 4,655 to 4,519 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased to 14 cases by 2022. This represents a 1300% increase over 12 years. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.21 in 2010 to 3.10 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also increased notably, from 0% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022. This upward trend suggests a growing concern for property security within the community.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 82 reported cases, which dropped to 31 by 2022, representing a 62.20% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 17.62 in 2010 to 6.86 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts decreased only slightly, from 0.05% to 0.03% over the same period. This indicates that while larceny theft has decreased locally, it remains a persistent issue relative to state-wide occurrences.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 7 reported cases, which decreased to 1 in 2022, an 85.71% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.50 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.03% to 0% during this period. These figures suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city.
Arson cases have been consistently low or non-existent in the city. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported cases of arson. This absence of arson incidents indicates that it is not a significant issue for the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $55,853 in 2013 to $69,263 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing a general decreasing trend over time.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential slight increase in burglaries, a continued decrease in larceny thefts, and relatively stable low rates for motor vehicle theft and arson. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously due to the variability in historical data.
In summary, Carlyle has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with significant reductions in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. However, the rise in burglaries presents a new challenge for local law enforcement. The city's property crime trends appear to be influenced by economic factors such as median income, highlighting the complex relationship between socioeconomic conditions and crime rates. As Carlyle moves forward, focusing on burglary prevention while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
