Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 64 incidents, which increased to 133 in 2020 before decreasing to 101 in 2022. This represents a 57.8% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.47 in 2010 to 2.21 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.48% in 2010 to 0.42% in 2022, suggesting that the increase in motor vehicle thefts is part of a broader trend across the state.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 7 arson incidents, which remained the same in 2022. However, there were significant variations in between, with a peak of 19 cases in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable at 0.16 in both 2010 and 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.67% in 2010 to 1.14% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a relatively more significant issue in the city compared to the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $45,664 in 2013 to $53,683 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced property crime. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 57% in 2014 to 60% in 2021 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher rates of homeownership contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, total property crimes could decrease by an additional 20-25%, potentially reaching around 750-800 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, with the potential to remain stable or slightly increase if current trends persist.

In summary, Cape Girardeau has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement has occurred alongside population growth and increases in median income, suggesting a positive trajectory for the city. However, challenges remain, particularly in addressing motor vehicle thefts and maintaining the downward trend in other property crimes. The city's efforts in crime prevention and community development appear to be yielding positive results, positioning Cape Girardeau for continued improvement in public safety and quality of life for its residents.