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Property Crime Trends in Canton, Ohio: A Decade of Complex Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Canton, Ohio, a community with a rich industrial history, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Canton decreased by 5.9%, from 4,129 to 3,887 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population contraction, with the city's population dropping by 4.5% from 72,958 in 2010 to 69,666 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decrease over time. In 2010, there were 1,523 burglaries reported, which declined to 602 cases in 2022, representing a 60.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 20.9 in 2010 to 8.6 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this significant decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 2.0% in 2010 to 2.82% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary has decreased in the city, it has done so at a slower rate than the state average, potentially indicating a relative concentration of burglary incidents within the urban area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown a more modest decline. The number of incidents decreased from 2,337 in 2010 to 2,711 in 2022, a 16% increase. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 32.0 in 2010 to 38.9 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents rose from 1.53% to 2.64% over this period, indicating that larceny-theft has become a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has experienced a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents more than doubled from 269 in 2010 to 574 in 2022, a 113.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 3.7 in 2010 to 8.2 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 1.61% to 2.53%, suggesting that this crime has become more prevalent in the city compared to other parts of the state.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but shown an overall decrease. From 46 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 15 in 2022, a 67.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.63 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases has remained relatively stable, changing from 1.68% in 2010 to 1.74% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in arson has been roughly in line with state trends.
Examining correlations between crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $25,817 in 2013 to $40,711 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization in overall property crime rates. Burglary is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching around 500 incidents annually. Larceny-theft may plateau around 2,700 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft, if current trends persist, could approach 700 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 10-20 incidents per year.
In summary, Canton has seen a complex evolution of its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglary and arson rates have significantly decreased, larceny-theft has remained relatively stable, and motor vehicle theft has surged. The city's share of state property crimes has generally increased, suggesting that urban-specific factors may be influencing crime patterns. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing property crime rates offers a positive indicator for future crime reduction efforts. As the city continues to navigate these trends, targeted strategies addressing specific property crime categories, particularly motor vehicle theft, may be crucial for enhancing public safety and maintaining the positive trajectory in overall crime reduction.
