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Property Crime Trends in Candor, NC: A Tale of Decline and Emergence
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Candor, a town in North Carolina, has witnessed significant changes in its property crime landscape from 2020 to 2022, coinciding with a notable population decrease. The total number of property crimes declined by 20%, from 15 to 12, while the population fell by 14.6%, from 3,102 to 2,650 residents. This shift has implications for the town's crime rates and demographic composition.
The burglary rate in Candor showed a slight downward trend. Reported burglaries decreased from 4 in 2020 to 3 in 2022, translating to a change from 1.29 to 1.13 burglaries per 1,000 people, a 12.4% decrease. The town's share of state burglaries also declined from 0.02% to 0.01%, indicating a faster reduction compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased, from 11 cases in 2020 to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 3.55 to 3.02, a 15% decrease. However, Candor's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained constant at 0.01%, suggesting that the reduction was proportional to the state's overall trend.
Motor vehicle theft showed an increase from a low base. There were no reported motor vehicle thefts in 2020, but this rose to 1 incident in 2022, resulting in an increase from 0 to 0.38 thefts per 1,000 residents. The town's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0% to 0.01%, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state figures.
Arson cases saw a significant uptick, from no reported incidents in 2020 to 1 case in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0 to 0.38 arsons per 1,000 residents. More notably, Candor's contribution to state arson figures jumped from 0% to 0.11%, a substantial increase that suggests a disproportionate rise in arson cases compared to state trends.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decline in overall property crime rates coincides with a decrease in population density, which fell from 1,531 per square mile in 2020 to 1,308 in 2022. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between changes in racial composition and crime trends. The percentage of white residents increased from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2022, while the black population decreased from 21% to 17%. This shift in demographics coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, though causation cannot be inferred from this correlation alone.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. However, this projection should be tempered by the potential for fluctuations in specific crime categories, particularly given the recent increases in motor vehicle theft and arson.
In summary, Candor has experienced a general decrease in property crimes, with notable exceptions in motor vehicle theft and arson. The town's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to be influential factors in these trends. While the overall direction is positive, the increases in certain crime categories warrant attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the continuation of the broader downward trend in property crimes.
