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Property Crime Trends in Campbell, Ohio: A Decade of Fluctuations and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Campbell, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 7,819 in 2022 and covering an area of 3.72 square miles, this small urban center has experienced notable fluctuations in its property crime rates alongside a gradual population decline.
The total number of property crimes in Campbell has shown a significant downward trend over the years for which data is available. In 2011, there were 95 reported property crimes, which peaked at 165 in 2012. However, by 2019, this number had substantially decreased to 53, representing a 44.2% reduction from 2011 to 2019. During this same period, the population decreased from 8,348 in 2011 to 7,924 in 2019, a decline of 5.1%.
Burglary rates in the city have fluctuated but generally trended downward. In 2011, there were 50 burglaries reported, which increased to 79 in 2012. However, by 2019, this number had dropped to 25, representing a 50% decrease from 2011. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.99 in 2011 to 3.15 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.06% in 2011 to 0.08% in 2019, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a more volatile pattern. Starting at 41 cases in 2011, it rose to 79 in 2012 but then dramatically fell to 21 cases by 2019, a 48.8% decrease from 2011. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 4.91 in 2011 to 2.65 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.03% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2019, suggesting that the local trend roughly mirrored state-wide changes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an overall increase, despite some fluctuations. From 4 cases in 2011, it rose to 7 cases in 2019, a 75% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.48 in 2011 to 0.88 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.05% over this period, indicating a faster rise in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson cases in Campbell were rare and sporadic. There was one reported case in 2011, 2012, and 2016, but none in other years with available data. This makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or meaningful rate per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated between 0% and 0.05% during the reported years.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The gradual decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with a declining population density, which fell from 2,245 per square mile in 2011 to 2,131 in 2019. There appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $32,200 in 2013 to $32,035 in 2019, overall property crime rates tended to decrease.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, we can forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029). The model suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates, with burglary and larceny-theft likely to decrease further. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Campbell has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This trend has occurred against a backdrop of declining population and increasing median income. The city's share of state property crimes has remained relatively small, with some fluctuations. These trends suggest improving safety conditions in the city, though continued vigilance, especially regarding motor vehicle theft, will be important for maintaining this positive trajectory in the coming years.
