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Property Crime Trends in Calverton Park, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Calverton Park, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 29 incidents in 2019, representing a 38.1% increase from the 21 incidents reported in 2010. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 1,236 in 2010 to 1,362 in 2019, a 10.2% rise.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which remained consistent in 2011 and 2013. However, 2014 saw a sharp spike to 17 burglaries, representing a 142.9% increase from 2010. This surge corresponded to a burglary rate of 13.75 per 1,000 residents, a substantial increase from 5.66 per 1,000 in 2010. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to the city jumped from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2014, indicating a disproportionate increase relative to state trends. By 2019, burglaries had decreased to 7, matching the 2010 level, but with a higher rate of 5.14 per 1,000 residents due to population growth.
Larceny theft exhibited a general upward trend. Starting with 9 incidents in 2010, it reached a peak of 19 in 2019, marking a 111.1% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 7.28 in 2010 to 13.95 in 2019. Despite this increase, the city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively low, rising from 0.01% to 0.02% over the decade. This suggests that while larceny theft increased locally, it did not significantly impact state-level statistics.
Motor vehicle theft trends were erratic. From 5 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2013 and 2014, before rising again to 4 incidents in 2016 and 2018, and then settling at 3 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 4.05 in 2010 to 2.20 in 2019. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2019, indicating a relative improvement compared to state trends.
Arson data was largely unavailable or reported as zero incidents throughout the period, making trend analysis impossible for this category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable relationship between property crime trends and racial demographics. As the Black population percentage increased from 41% in 2013 to 53% in 2022, there was a concurrent rise in overall property crimes. This correlation suggests potential socioeconomic factors at play. Additionally, the rise in median income from $48,184 in 2013 to $74,299 in 2022 did not appear to significantly reduce property crime rates, indicating that other factors may be more influential.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends to 2029 (five years from now) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in overall property crimes, particularly in larceny theft. However, burglary rates are expected to stabilize or slightly decrease, while motor vehicle theft may continue its erratic pattern.
In summary, Calverton Park has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, with larceny theft showing the most consistent increase. The city's changing demographic composition appears to correlate with these trends, highlighting the complex interplay between social factors and crime rates. As the community continues to evolve, addressing these property crime challenges will likely remain a key focus for local law enforcement and policymakers.
