Motor vehicle theft showed a more variable trend. Starting at 34 incidents in 2010, it reached a low of 19 in 2013 before rising to 39 in 2022, representing a 14.7% increase over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 2.4 in 2010 to 2.5 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2018, before settling back at 0.03% in 2022. This fluctuating trend suggests that vehicle theft remains a persistent issue despite overall improvements in other property crime categories.

Arson data for the city is limited, with several years showing no reported incidents. However, there was a notable increase from 0 cases in 2010 to 7 cases in 2020, the highest recorded in the available data. The rate per 1,000 residents for arson in 2020 was 0.47. The city's contribution to state arson cases peaked at 0.07% in 2020. This increase, although small in absolute numbers, warrants attention from local authorities.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a shift in racial demographics, particularly the decrease in the white population from 53% in 2013 to 31% in 2022, and an increase in the Hispanic population from 27% in 2013 to 39% in 2022. Additionally, the decline in property crimes occurred despite a decrease in homeownership rates from 66% in 2013 to 61% in 2022, challenging the notion that higher homeownership rates always correlate with lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trends, potentially reaching historic lows. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase if current patterns persist. Arson incidents, while low in number, may require targeted prevention efforts to avoid potential spikes.

In summary, California City has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most substantial improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft and arson presented more complex patterns. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and changes in homeownership rates, paint a picture of a changing urban landscape with evolving security challenges. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining and building upon these positive trends in property crime reduction will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.