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Property Crime Trends in Calhoun City: Burglaries Plummet Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Calhoun City, Mississippi, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2021 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 14 to 11, marking a 21.43% reduction. This shift occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 2,026 in 2021 to 1,955 in 2022, a 3.50% decrease.
The burglary rate in the city showed a significant downward trend. In 2021, there were 8 burglaries, which dropped to 2 in 2022, representing a 75% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.95 per 1,000 residents in 2021 to 1.02 per 1,000 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries declined sharply from 0.19% to 0.06%, indicating a substantial improvement in this area relative to the rest of Mississippi.
Larceny-theft remained stable with 6 incidents reported in both 2021 and 2022. However, due to the population decrease, the rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 2.96 to 3.07. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained constant at 0.04%, suggesting that this type of crime is evolving similarly to statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft saw a notable increase, rising from 0 incidents in 2021 to 3 in 2022. This change elevated the rate from 0 to 1.53 per 1,000 residents. More significantly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0% to 0.18%, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to statewide figures.
Arson cases remained at zero for both years, maintaining a 0% contribution to state totals and suggesting effective fire prevention and investigation measures in place.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a potential link between the overall decrease in property crimes and the rising median income. The median income increased from $39,800 in 2021 to $42,176 in 2022, a 5.97% rise. This economic improvement might have contributed to the reduction in certain types of property crimes, particularly burglary.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to maintain their downward trajectory, potentially reaching near-zero levels. Larceny-theft is projected to remain stable or show a slight decrease. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to rise moderately before stabilizing, reflecting recent trends.
In summary, Calhoun City has shown a promising reduction in overall property crimes, with significant improvements in burglary rates. The stability in larceny-theft and the absence of arson cases are positive indicators. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crimes suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety in the coming years.
