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Property Crime Trends in Burnside, Kentucky: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Burnside, located in Kentucky, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside a steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 78.57%, from 42 to 9 incidents. During the same period, the population increased by 6.64%, from 14,204 to 15,147 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 11 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 1 in 2022, representing a 90.91% decrease. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.77 in 2010 to 0.07 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.09% in 2016 before declining to 0.02% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. In 2010, there were 30 reported cases, which decreased to 6 in 2022, a 80% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 2.11 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.11% over the years. This decline in larceny theft indicates improved community awareness and potentially enhanced retail security measures.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 4 over the years, with 2 cases reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 0.13, compared to 0.07 in 2010. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, despite the relatively low absolute numbers. This suggests that while the city's motor vehicle theft rate remains low, it has increased slightly relative to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only two reported incidents over the 13-year period - one in 2010 and another in 2014. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.07 and 0.07 respectively. The city's contribution to state arson cases was 0.24% in 2010 and 0.66% in 2014, with no reported cases in other years. The infrequency of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $36,767 in 2013 to $45,097 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 34 to 9. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years. By 2029, we project that the total number of property crimes could fall to around 5-7 incidents per year, assuming current trends and socioeconomic factors remain relatively stable.
In summary, Burnside has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggests a strengthening community fabric and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while growing its population is a testament to its community resilience and provides a promising outlook for future safety and security in Burnside.
