Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an overall increase, despite some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 276 reported cases, which rose to 295 in 2022, a 6.9% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 2.67 in 2010 to 2.84 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, indicating that while the absolute numbers increased, Burbank's contribution to statewide vehicle thefts decreased relatively.

Arson cases in Burbank have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 8 reported arsons, which increased dramatically to 39 in 2022, a 387.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.08 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2022. Most notably, the city's proportion of state arsons increased from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.63% in 2022, a substantial rise that warrants attention from local law enforcement and fire prevention services.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income in Burbank increased from $59,314 in 2013 to $92,581 in 2022, a 56.1% rise, there was a corresponding increase in certain property crimes, particularly larceny-theft. This could suggest that as the city became more affluent, it may have become a more attractive target for theft-related crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Larceny-theft is projected to maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching around 2,500 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to stabilize or continue their slight decline, possibly dropping to around 250 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may see a moderate increase, potentially reaching 320-330 cases annually. Arson cases, given their recent spike, are difficult to predict accurately but could stabilize around 30-35 incidents per year if current trends persist.

In summary, Burbank's property crime landscape has evolved significantly over the past decade. While burglaries have decreased substantially, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have increased. The dramatic rise in arson cases is particularly concerning and may require targeted intervention. As the city continues to grow economically, it faces the challenge of balancing prosperity with effective crime prevention strategies. These trends underscore the need for adaptive law enforcement approaches and community engagement to address the changing nature of property crimes in Burbank.