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Property Crime Trends in Bryan, Texas: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bryan, located in Texas, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 52.9%, from 3,647 to 1,718. During this same period, the population grew by 13.1%, from 76,541 to 86,559.
Burglary incidents in the city showed a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 890 burglaries, which decreased to 280 by 2020, representing a 68.5% reduction. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 11.6 in 2010 to 3.2 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2020, indicating a more rapid improvement in burglary rates compared to the state average. This trend suggests enhanced security measures or improved community policing efforts in the area.
Larceny-theft cases also demonstrated a downward trend. In 2010, 2,632 incidents were reported, which decreased to 1,302 by 2020, a 50.5% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents declined from 34.4 in 2010 to 15.0 in 2020. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased slightly from 0.48% to 0.35% over this period, indicating a marginally better improvement than the state average. This trend might reflect increased awareness and prevention efforts among residents and businesses.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 125 in 2010 to 136 in 2020, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 1.6 to 1.6 due to population growth. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.22% to 0.20%. This suggests that while raw numbers increased slightly, the city maintained its relative position compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated but ultimately decreased. From 59 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 6 in 2020, representing an 89.8% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.77 to 0.07. The city's proportion of state arson cases decreased dramatically from 1.4% to 0.27%, indicating a much more significant improvement compared to state trends. This could suggest highly effective fire prevention and investigation efforts in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $38,522 in 2013 to $59,771 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see a further 15-20% reduction in overall property crime rates if current trends continue. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trajectories, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show slight increases.
In summary, Bryan has demonstrated significant improvements in property crime rates across most categories, outpacing population growth and often showing better progress than state averages. The most notable reductions were seen in burglary and arson cases. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest a positive trajectory for public safety and economic development in the city. However, continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these encouraging trends in the coming years.
