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Property Crime Trends in Brownwood, Texas: A Decade of Significant Reductions
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brownwood, a city in Texas, has witnessed substantial changes in property crime rates over the past decade, coupled with modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 40.4%, from 738 to 440 incidents, while the population increased slightly by 0.15%, from 23,102 to 23,136 residents.
Burglary rates in Brownwood have shown a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 163 burglaries, which decreased to 78 by 2022, representing a 52.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.06 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.37 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.09% in 2010, peaking at 0.15% in 2014, and settling at 0.10% in 2022. This downward trend in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Brownwood, also experienced a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 564 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 327 by 2022, a 42% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 24.41 in 2010 to 14.13 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.08% to 0.15% over the period. This consistent decline in larceny-theft rates may indicate improved community awareness and prevention measures.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern in Brownwood. While there were only 11 incidents in 2010, this number increased to 35 by 2022, a 218% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.48 in 2010 to 1.51 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, ranging from 0.02% to 0.07% over the years. This trend could suggest a need for targeted efforts to address vehicle security in the area.
Arson cases in Brownwood have remained low but variable. From 2 incidents in 2010, the number fluctuated, reaching a peak of 5 in 2020 before settling at 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained below 0.22 throughout the period. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied significantly, from 0.04% to 0.23%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2020. While arson remains a relatively rare occurrence, the fluctuations suggest a need for continued vigilance.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $44,878 in 2013 to $47,528 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 24% in 2013 to 29% in 2022, property crime rates showed some fluctuations but generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates in Brownwood. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, potentially reaching rates of 2.5 and 12 per 1,000 residents, respectively, by 2029. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or show a slight increase, potentially reaching 1.7 per 1,000 residents. Arson rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their rarity.
In conclusion, Brownwood has shown promising trends in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The rise in motor vehicle thefts, while concerning, remains a relatively small portion of overall property crimes. These trends, coupled with the city's modest population growth and increasing median income, suggest a generally improving security situation. However, continued efforts in crime prevention, especially targeting vehicle thefts, will be crucial in maintaining and furthering these positive trends in the coming years.
