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Property Crime Trends in Brown City, Michigan: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brown City, Michigan, a small city with a population of 4,542 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 27.27%, from 22 to 16 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 0.82%, from 4,509 to 4,542 residents.
The burglary trend in the city shows a significant decline over time. In 2011, there were 2 burglaries reported, peaking at 9 in 2013, before dropping to zero reported cases from 2019 to 2022. This translates to a decrease from 0.44 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2011 to 0 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics has remained consistently low, ranging from 0% to 0.03% of the state total, indicating that burglary is not a significant concern for the local community.
Larceny theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. The number of larceny thefts fluctuated over the years, from 20 incidents in 2011 to 15 in 2022, representing a 25% decrease. When adjusted for population, this translates to a decrease from 4.44 incidents per 1,000 people in 2011 to 3.30 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft statistics has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03% of the state total, suggesting that while larceny theft is the most common property crime, it remains a small fraction of the state's overall incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low and sporadic. There were no reported cases in 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2020. In years when incidents were reported, there was typically only one case, with the exception of 2021 when there was a slight increase to two cases. This translates to a rate that fluctuated between 0 and 0.44 incidents per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has been minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.01% of the state total, indicating that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue for the community.
Arson incidents have been consistently reported as zero from 2011 to 2022, with no contribution to state arson statistics. This suggests that arson is not a concern for the city, maintaining a rate of 0 incidents per 1,000 people throughout the observed period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $44,127 in 2013 to $55,302 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crime incidents. The percentage of owner-occupied housing has remained relatively stable, ranging from 78% to 84%, which may contribute to the overall low crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the city will continue to experience low and possibly further declining property crime rates. Larceny theft is expected to remain the primary concern, albeit at low levels, while burglary and motor vehicle theft are likely to remain sporadic and infrequent. Arson is predicted to continue its trend of zero incidents.
In summary, Brown City has demonstrated a positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade. The most significant changes have been the elimination of burglaries and the overall decrease in larceny thefts. These improvements, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and absence of arson, paint a picture of a relatively safe community with regard to property crimes. The city's minimal contribution to state crime statistics further underscores its status as a low-crime area, likely influenced by factors such as increasing median income and stable home ownership rates.
