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Property Crime Trends in Brookhaven, Georgia: A Decade of Growth and Safety Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brookhaven, Georgia, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates amid steady population growth from 2014 to 2022. The total number of property crimes varied, starting at 1,348 in 2014, peaking at 1,461 in 2017, and decreasing to 1,253 by 2022, representing a 7.05% overall decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 53,591 to 58,631, a 9.4% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2014, there were 253 burglaries, which decreased to 154 by 2022, a 39.13% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.72 to 2.63, a 44.28% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.89% in 2014 to a peak of 4.89% in 2019, before settling at 1.64% in 2022. This overall decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed less dramatic changes. The number of incidents decreased slightly from 980 in 2014 to 974 in 2022, a 0.61% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 18.29 to 16.61, a 9.19% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.97% in 2014 to 1.46% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved, they did not keep pace with statewide reductions.
Motor vehicle theft presented a more volatile trend. The number of thefts increased from 115 in 2014 to 125 in 2022, an 8.70% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 2.15 to 2.13, a slight 0.93% decrease. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 5.86% in 2019 before decreasing to 1.31% in 2022. This suggests that while the raw number of thefts increased, it remained proportional to population growth and improved relative to state trends.
Arson cases, though low in number, showed significant variability. The count increased from 4 in 2014 to 7 in 2022, a 75% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.075 to 0.119, a 58.67% increase. The city's proportion of state arsons grew from 1.19% to 2.55% over this period. While the percentage increases are large, the small absolute numbers make it difficult to draw strong conclusions about long-term trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $92,809 in 2014 to $117,784 in 2022, a 26.91% increase, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 120 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 950-1000 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 135-140 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low but variable, likely between 5-8 incidents annually.
In summary, Brookhaven has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries, coupled with relatively stable larceny-theft rates and a modest increase in motor vehicle thefts, suggests an overall improving trend in property crime. The correlation with rising median incomes indicates that continued economic growth could further support crime reduction efforts. However, the volatility in certain crime categories, particularly arson, underscores the need for ongoing vigilance and adaptive law enforcement strategies.
