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Property Crime Trends in Bridger, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Growing Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bridger, Montana, a small community with a population of 1,022 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes varied, ranging from a low of 1 in 2011 to a high of 10 in 2017. Over this period, the city's population also saw changes, growing from 900 in 2010 to 1,046 in 2021, representing a 16.2% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent. The number of burglaries ranged from 0 to 2 incidents per year. In 2012, there were 2 burglaries, representing 0.09% of the state's total. This equated to approximately 1.82 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2021, there was 1 burglary, accounting for 0.07% of the state's total, or about 0.96 burglaries per 1,000 residents. This indicates a slight decrease in the burglary rate relative to the population over time.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. In 2010, there were 6 larceny-theft incidents, representing 0.05% of the state's total. This rate fluctuated over the years, reaching a peak of 8 incidents in 2017 (0.05% of the state's total) and decreasing to 3 incidents in 2021 (0.03% of the state's total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.67 in 2010 to 2.87 in 2021, suggesting an overall improvement in larceny-theft rates relative to population growth.
Motor vehicle theft occurrences have been sporadic. The city experienced no motor vehicle thefts in most years, with occasional incidents in 2013 (1 theft, 0.09% of state total), 2015 (1 theft, 0.07% of state total), and 2018 (2 thefts, 0.14% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents during these years ranged from 0.79 to 1.97, indicating low but variable rates of motor vehicle theft.
Arson incidents were not reported in the data provided for Bridger from 2010 to 2021, suggesting that arson has not been a significant issue in the community during this period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,128 per square mile in 2010 to 1,312 per square mile in 2021, the overall property crime rate showed a general downward trend, despite some fluctuations. This suggests that as the community became more densely populated, property crime rates tended to decrease.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and current trends, we might expect: 1) Burglary rates to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year; 2) Larceny-theft to continue as the primary property crime, with a projected average of 4-5 incidents annually; 3) Motor vehicle theft to remain infrequent, with 0-1 incidents per year on average; 4) Arson to continue to be a non-issue, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Bridger has experienced relatively low and declining property crime rates over the past decade, particularly when considered in relation to its growing population. Larceny-theft remains the most common property crime, while burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson occur infrequently. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates suggests that the community may be benefiting from increased social cohesion or improved security measures as it grows. These trends, if they continue, indicate a positive outlook for public safety in Bridger over the coming years.
