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Property Crime Trends in Brewton, Alabama: A Decade of Progress Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brewton, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 239 to 148, representing a 38% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 4.2%, from 7,824 in 2010 to 8,150 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decrease over the observed period. In 2010, there were 24 burglaries, which peaked at 56 in 2012 before declining to 18 in 2022, marking a 25% decrease from the 2010 figure. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.07 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.21 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. From 210 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 119 in 2022, a 43.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 26.84 in 2010 to 14.60 in 2022. Despite this local decrease, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, suggesting a similar downward trend across the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but an overall decrease. From 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 24 in 2018 before declining to 11 in 2022, representing a 120% increase over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.64 in 2010 to 1.35 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% to 0.16%, indicating that this crime decreased less rapidly in the city compared to the state average.
Arson data is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 case in 2011 and 3 cases in 2022. This sparse data makes it difficult to identify clear trends, but it's worth noting that the 2022 figure represents 0.56% of state arson cases, a significant proportion for a small city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $37,499 in 2013 to $41,617 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 258 to 148. Additionally, the slight decrease in owner-occupied housing from 74% in 2013 to 70% in 2022 coincides with the overall reduction in property crimes, suggesting that homeownership may not be a strong factor in this city's crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Brewton may see its total property crimes further decrease to around 120-130 annually. Burglaries could potentially drop to 15 or fewer per year, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 100 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft, given its volatility, is harder to predict but may range between 8-12 cases per year.
In summary, Brewton has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend occurred despite modest population growth and seems strongly correlated with rising median incomes. While the city's share of state crime rates has remained relatively stable or slightly increased in some categories, the absolute numbers show a clear improvement in local safety. These trends, if continued, suggest a promising outlook for further crime reduction in Brewton over the next five years.
