Motor vehicle theft has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 5 reported incidents, which rose to 9 in 2022, an 80% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.95 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts remained steady at 0.01% for most years. This uptick in motor vehicle thefts could suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures or increased awareness among residents.

Arson incidents in Brazoria have been rare, with only one reported case in 2015. This single incident represented 0.04% of the state's arson cases that year. The scarcity of arson events indicates that it is not a significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $58,285 in 2013 to $66,368 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in overall property crime incidents. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 78% in 2013 to 71% in 2022 coincides with some fluctuations in property crime rates, suggesting a potential link between ownership stability and crime levels.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime incidents. Based on historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Brazoria could see approximately 45-50 total property crime incidents annually, representing a further 7-17% decrease from 2022 levels. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 3-4 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may continue to fluctuate but trend downward to about 35-38 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts, however, may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 10-12 incidents per year by 2029 if current patterns persist.

In summary, Brazoria has made significant strides in reducing burglaries and maintaining relatively low levels of property crime overall. The projected continued decline in property crime rates, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, paints a positive picture for the city's future. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts remains an area of concern that may require targeted interventions. These trends reflect a community that is evolving and adapting to changing socioeconomic conditions while working to maintain and improve public safety.