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Property Crime Trends in Braymer, Missouri: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Braymer, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, coupled with a significant population decline. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 80%, from 5 to 1, while the population decreased by 20.25%, from 1,106 to 882 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there was 1 reported burglary, which increased to 5 in 2012, representing a 400% increase. However, by 2018, burglaries had dropped to zero. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2012 at 4.82 and fell to 0 by 2018. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to the city fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.02% in 2012 before falling to 0% in later years. This trend suggests an overall improvement in burglary prevention within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also shown a downward trend. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, which doubled to 8 in 2013, but then decreased to 0 by 2018. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people peaked at 7.92 in 2013 and fell to 0 by 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01%. This decline in larceny-theft cases indicates improved property security measures or increased community vigilance.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been rare, with only one reported incident in 2018. This single case resulted in a rate of 1.11 per 1,000 people and represented 0.01% of the state's motor vehicle thefts for that year. The infrequency of these incidents suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases have been non-existent in the available data, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2018. This absence of arson cases indicates a positive aspect of public safety in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,871 per square mile in 2010 to 1,492 in 2022, property crimes also generally declined. Concurrently, median income rose from $35,432 in 2013 to $47,163 in 2022, a 33% increase. The percentage of owner-occupied homes also increased from 67% in 2013 to 79% in 2022. These trends suggest that as the community became more stable with higher incomes and homeownership rates, property crime rates tended to decrease.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on the historical data, it's projected that property crime rates will remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year. However, this forecast assumes that current socioeconomic trends and community dynamics remain relatively stable.
In summary, Braymer has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, despite a declining population. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft and arson have remained minimal concerns. These positive trends correlate with increasing median incomes and homeownership rates, suggesting a more stable and secure community environment. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates will likely depend on continued community engagement and economic stability.
