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Property Crime Trends in Brawley, California: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brawley, located in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 1,102 to 677, representing a 38.6% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 25,505 to 27,319, an increase of 7.1%.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 354 burglaries, which decreased to 107 in 2022, marking a 69.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.9 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.9 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 622 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 475 in 2022, a 23.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 24.4 in 2010 to 17.4 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-thefts slightly decreased from 0.12% to 0.10%, indicating that the reduction in this crime category was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a more complex pattern. The number of incidents decreased from 126 in 2010 to 95 in 2022, a 24.6% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the rate only slightly decreased from 4.9 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.5 per 1,000 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.10% to 0.06% over this period, suggesting that the city has made progress in this area relative to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 11 arson cases, which increased to a peak of 36 in 2013 before decreasing to 28 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.43 in 2010 to 1.03 in 2020. The city's share of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2020, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to the state average.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $43,728 in 2016 to $54,487 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 941 to 677. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 90-100 cases annually, while larceny-theft may continue to decrease slightly to around 450 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts might see a small increase to about 100-110 cases annually if current trends persist. Arson cases are more difficult to predict due to their fluctuating nature, but they may stabilize around 20-25 cases per year.
In summary, Brawley has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city has made progress in reducing its share of state property crimes in most categories, indicating effective local strategies. However, the increase in arson cases relative to the state average suggests a need for targeted intervention in this area. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates highlights the potential impact of economic factors on crime trends in the city.
