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Property Crime Trends in Bradenton Beach: A Coastal Community's Transformation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bradenton Beach, a coastal community in Florida, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 30.3%, from 33 to 23 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 45.3%, from 1,419 to 776 residents, indicating a complex relationship between crime rates and population dynamics.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which remained relatively stable until 2022 when the number reached 6 again. However, when considering the population decline, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually increased from 4.23 in 2010 to 7.73 in 2022. This represents an 82.7% increase in the burglary rate relative to the population. The city's share of state burglaries also rose dramatically, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, a sixfold increase. This suggests that while the absolute number of burglaries remained stable, they became a more significant issue relative to both the local population and state-wide burglary trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a substantial decrease over time. In 2010, there were 26 larceny thefts, which dropped to 15 in 2022, a 42.3% decrease. However, when adjusted for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents only slightly decreased from 18.32 in 2010 to 19.33 in 2022, a 5.5% increase. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents doubled from 0.01% to 0.02% during this period. This indicates that while larceny theft decreased in absolute numbers, it remained a persistent issue relative to the shrinking population.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low but showed a slight increase. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 2 in 2022. When considering the population decline, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.70 in 2010 to 2.58 in 2022, a 268.6% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose from 0.00% to 0.03%. While the absolute numbers remain small, this trend suggests an increasing prevalence of motor vehicle theft relative to the population size.
Arson incidents in the city have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022, indicating that this particular type of property crime has not been a significant issue for the community during this period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 2,744 per square mile in 2010 to 1,501 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in total property crimes. However, the rate of property crimes per capita increased, suggesting that the remaining population experienced a higher concentration of criminal activity. Additionally, as the median income rose from $41,409 in 2013 to $67,571 in 2022, and the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 59% to 81%, there was a general trend of decreasing absolute numbers of property crimes, although the per capita rates remained elevated due to the population decline.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. If population decline continues at the current rate, the city may experience between 20-25 property crimes annually, with burglaries and larceny thefts remaining the primary concerns. The per capita crime rates may continue to rise if the population decrease outpaces the reduction in crime incidents.
In summary, Bradenton Beach has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends against a backdrop of significant population decline. While absolute numbers of property crimes have generally decreased, the rates per capita have increased for most categories. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime statistics has grown, particularly for burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with demographic changes such as increasing median income and home ownership, paint a picture of a transforming community grappling with the challenges of maintaining public safety amidst a shrinking population base.
