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Property Crime Trends in Bradbury: A Small California City's Fluctuating Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bradbury, a small community in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 11 incidents in 2010 to 9 in 2022, representing an 18.18% reduction. During this period, the population saw minor variations, starting at 1,012 in 2010 and ending at 1,037 in 2022, a modest growth of 2.47%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which remained constant until 2013 when it dropped to 5. The most dramatic spike occurred in 2018 with 9 burglaries, followed by a sharp decline to 2 in 2019. By 2022, burglaries rose again to 7. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 5.93 in 2010 to 6.75 in 2022. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to the city remained minimal, typically at 0% except for 2018 and 2022 when it reached 0.01%.
Larceny theft in the city has shown a general downward trend. From 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 9 in 2013 before declining to just 2 cases in 2022. This represents a 60% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.94 in 2010 to 1.93 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures remained consistently at 0% throughout the period, indicating its minimal impact on overall state statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the area has been sporadic. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The highest number of incidents was 2, occurring in both 2013 and 2019. In 2022, there were no reported motor vehicle thefts. The rate per 1,000 residents, when incidents occurred, ranged from 0.86 in 2013 to 1.96 in 2019. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained at 0% throughout, highlighting its minimal impact on state-level figures.
Arson incidents in the city were extremely rare, with no reported cases from 2010 to 2020. Data for 2022 was not available. This consistent absence of arson cases resulted in a 0% contribution to state arson statistics throughout the period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $90,624 in 2013 to $118,018 in 2022, total property crimes generally decreased, from 16 in 2013 to 9 in 2022. However, this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by fluctuations in between these years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on the historical data, we might expect total property crimes to stabilize around 7-8 incidents per year, with burglaries potentially decreasing slightly to 5-6 cases annually, and larceny thefts remaining low at 2-3 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year. Arson is expected to continue its trend of no reported cases.
In summary, Bradbury has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with some fluctuations. The most significant reductions were seen in larceny theft, while burglary rates have been more volatile. The city's impact on state-level crime statistics remains minimal across all categories. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests a potential link between economic well-being and crime reduction in this small community.
