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Property Crime Trends in Bowling Green, Florida: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bowling Green, located in Florida, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 71 incidents in 2010 to 22 in 2022, representing a 69% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 4,110 in 2010 to 3,153 in 2022, a 23.3% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which dropped to 4 in 2022, an 85.7% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.81 in 2010 to 1.27 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts may have reduced burglaries, the city's relative contribution to state burglaries has slightly increased, possibly due to more significant reductions in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, from 42 cases in 2010 to 10 in 2022, a 76.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.22 in 2010 to 3.17 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This indicates that the reduction in larceny-theft aligns with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft presents a more complex picture. The number of incidents increased from 1 in 2010 to 8 in 2022, a 700% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.24 in 2010 to 2.54 in 2022. More strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022. This significant increase suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a more prominent issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Arson data for the city shows zero incidents throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, indicating that arson has not been a significant concern in the area.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in motor vehicle thefts appears to coincide with a decrease in population density, which fell from 3,252 per square mile in 2010 to 2,495 in 2022. This could suggest that lower population density might be associated with increased opportunities for vehicle theft.
There's also a notable correlation between the overall decrease in property crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of Hispanic residents decreased from 64% in 2017 to 50% in 2022, while the percentage of white residents increased from 28% to 39% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the general downward trend in property crimes, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in total property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain a concern, potentially increasing or stabilizing at a higher rate compared to other property crimes.
In summary, Bowling Green has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge for local law enforcement. The changing demographic composition of the city, along with fluctuations in population density, appears to correlate with these crime trends. As the city moves forward, maintaining vigilance against motor vehicle theft while building on the successes in reducing other forms of property crime will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
