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Property Crime Trends in Bolivar, Missouri: A City with Declining Burglary Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bolivar, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 642 incidents in 2016 before declining to 290 in 2022, representing a 54.8% decrease over this period. Interestingly, this change occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth, with the city's population increasing by 3.3% from 14,760 in 2010 to 14,730 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant downward trajectory. In 2010, there were 67 burglaries, which rose to a peak of 96 in 2014 before steadily declining to 29 in 2022, marking a 56.7% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.54 in 2010 to 1.97 in 2022. Despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2014-2016, before settling at 0.22% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts may have reduced burglaries, the city's relative contribution to state totals remained somewhat consistent.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, exhibited a more volatile pattern. Starting at 277 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 514 in 2016 before decreasing to 248 in 2022, a 10.5% overall decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 18.77 in 2010 to a high of 32.59 in 2016, ending at 16.84 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.52% in 2016, settling at 0.32% in 2022. This indicates that while local larceny theft rates have improved, they remain a significant concern relative to state levels.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal a concerning increase over time. From 11 incidents in 2010, the number rose to a peak of 44 in 2016 before slightly decreasing to 13 in 2022, still an 18.2% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.75 in 2010 to 2.79 in 2016, ending at 0.88 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2016, though it decreased to 0.05% by 2022. This suggests that while recent years have seen improvement, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue requiring attention.
Arson incidents in the city have remained relatively low but variable. From 1 incident in 2010, the number fluctuated between 0 and 2 annually, ending with 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.13. The city's share of state arsons varied from 0.10% to 0.29% over the years, indicating that while arson is not a major concern, it still contributes to the state's totals.
Examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,795 per square mile in 2010 to a peak of 1,918 in 2016, property crimes also reached their highest point of 642 that year. Subsequently, as density decreased to 1,791 by 2022, property crimes also declined to 290. This suggests a potential link between urban concentration and crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. By 2029, five years from now, we project the total number of property crimes could fall to around 250 incidents annually, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies persist.
In conclusion, Bolivar has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends over the past decade. While burglaries and larceny thefts have generally decreased, motor vehicle thefts have shown concerning increases at times. The correlation between population density and crime rates underscores the importance of urban planning and community-focused crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining vigilance in addressing property crimes, particularly in densely populated areas, will be crucial for ensuring public safety and maintaining the positive trends observed in recent years.
